The previous season of Bobby Slowik left us wondering what may have been.
With rising star C.J. Stroud torturing defences in every measurable way as a rookie in 2023, the Texans offensive coordinator—fondly known as PFF Bobby by football analytics nerds—toyed with the notion of Houston’s offence being a hugely pass-heavy attack.
Against Baltimore in Week 1, the Texans went Full Chiefs, with an 8 percent drop back rate that was higher than anticipated. Then, in Week 3, Houston’s dropback rate exceeded expectations by 7%. Stroud has attempted 121 passes in his first three NFL games; going into Week 4, only Kirk Cousins had attempted more touchdown passes than Stroud.
A total of pass attempts that infuriated NFL veterans with a sense of righteous anger. They howled, “This is not how you win in the NFL with a rookie quarterback.” You set up the run game, passing only when necessary, and hoping for a brilliant defensive performance. This has been the standard procedure for years. How could PFF Bobby question this well-proven recipe.
After that, Slowik changed his strategy and called an offence that mostly consisted of runs-first plays for the next six weeks. From Week 4 to Week 10, Houston’s dropback rate was 4% lower than anticipated. However, an odd thing was happening: Slowik was ordering more dropbacks on early downs than he had during the first few weeks of the season, when Houston was passing at an expected rate of eight percent on first downs, which is considered a bad pass in analytics circles.
The Texans were 1% over their projected first-down pass rate and 2% over their total PROE from Week 11 to the end of the season. As I mentioned: a tease. Though not by much, Slowik’s offence ranked in the top half of the league in terms of pass-heavy plays. In the end, Stroud and the Texans were nearly as pass-heavy as the humble Raiders and Saints.
Potential Future Situations in 2024
The 2023 Texans’ Week 9 victory over the Bucs, a 39-37 duel in which Tyler Stroud established himself as the team’s and perhaps the NFL’s future star, stands out on the spreadsheet.
Slowik unleashed his fury on Tampa. The Texans’ first down pass rate was a startling 10% higher than anticipated. Slowik and company were 8 percent over their predicted pass rate overall, dropping back on 73 percent of their offensive attempts. After 470 yards and five touchdown passes, Stroud solidified his reputation as the 2023 draft class’s One Who Was Promised.
I believe Slowik’s previously announced jesting may finish around 2024. The Texans may (finally) shift to a pass-first offence under the direction of Stroud with the addition of Stefon Diggs to complement Tank Dell and Nico Collins, who are perhaps the best tandem in the NFL.
After adding a top wide receiver, NFL teams have been known to stray from their commitment to drastically balanced offences. The 2022 Eagles were 3 percent above their projected drop back rate after being 3 percent below it in 2021—this after they managed to acquire A.J. Brown from the Titans. Prior to signing Stefon Diggs before the 2020 campaign, Buffalo was an unreservedly run-first offence. The centrepiece of the Bills’ passing attack—a much younger and more productive Diggs—led them from a minuscule 1% PROE in 2019 to a 10% PROE in 2020. Josh Allen attempted 111 more passes in 2020 than he did in the previous year. That equates to around seven extra throws every game.
Investing financial and material resources in a top-tier pass catcher can frequently dissuade teams from using more conventional, balanced offensive strategies. The fact that the Texans have decided to stick with an aging veteran like Joe Mixon as their primary back implies they have no intention of establishing it via a workhorse-led running game.
An uptick in Stroud’s dropbacks could provide the kind of pass volume required for 2024 to be a good year statistically for Dell, Diggs, and Collins. If Slowik and the Texans want to get the most out of their trio of wideouts, they will first need to give up on using a lot of personnel—21 total—two running backs, one tight end, and two receivers and rely more on 11 personnel—one back, one tight end, and three receivers.
The Texans in 2023 ran 29 percent of their plays with 21 players, which was the fourth-highest percentage in the league behind the Dolphins, Ravens, and Niners. Their 11 personnel utilization was among the lowest in the NFL at 29 percent. If a team only has two effective wide receivers, then that type of offence makes sense. Houston’s only option with three is to put Dell, Collins, and Diggs on the field simultaneously. The Texans might (could) make opposition defensive coordinators’ nightmares if they stick to their strategy of using more three-wideout formations and hitting the middle of the field. In 2023, Houston led the league with a 26 percent middle-of-the-field target rate.
It would be wise for the Texans to step up their game on fourth downs as well. Head coach DeMeco Ryans attempted a fourth down at a 15 percent rate last year, which was the ninth lowest in the NFL. Perhaps, ideally, Diggs’ arrival will put an end to the team’s annoying experimentation with a balanced, attack-at-all-costs strategy in 2024. Let’s hope Slowik lets Stroud finish cooking.
