According to FanGraphs, the Phillies have the top bullpen in the league. How did we get here and what makes the relief corps so great after years of development?
As we approach 2024, the Phillies and their supporters find themselves, in the greatest conceivable sense, on uncharted ground. With the assistance of FanGraphs, MLB.com expects the Phillies bullpen to be the best in the league in 2024, ending years in which it was the team’s most obvious weakness.
It’s accurate what you read.
The expected fWAR of the Phillies bullpen is 4.8, which is higher than the 4.2 projected fWAR of the Atlanta Braves, making it the best in the league.
The Phillies have been constructing a strong foundation for the past few years as they enter this season. The Phillies have been lacking strong relievers during their bad seasons, including José Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm, and rookie Orion Kerkering.
With a 6.8 fWAR in the bullpen, the Phillies finished third in 2023, barely behind the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers. With a 9.77 K/9 rate and a 3.58 ERA, they came in sixth and seventh, respectively.
In recent years, the Phillies bullpen has improved significantly.
2022 and 2023 were the first years in a long time in which the Phillies bullpen was not one of the worst in the league. The bullpen placed 23rd in 2019 with a 0.8 fWAR; 28th in 2020 with a -1.0 fWAR; and 28th once more in 2021 with a 1.0 fWAR. It goes without saying that the Phillies and their supporters have recently seen a number of disappointing bullpens and a great deal of wasted potential.
The bullpen’s fastball averaged 95 mph in 2023, which was seventh in the league, according to FanGraphs. With an average speed of 91.4 mph, cutters came in fourth, sliders in fifth, and sinkers, with an average speed of 97 mph, topped the MLB rankings. According to Matt Gelb of The Athletic, the Phillies front management has made this a deliberate plan. They have looked for hard-throwing relief pitchers and assigned them to train with Caleb Cotham, the pitching coach, and his team to hone their fastball pitching and repertoire.
The Phillies will at last have a talented and deep bullpen in 2024, allowing them to sustain leads and win games. A big factor in the Phillies’ success last season was their middle relief talent, which allows them to limit deficits and give the offense a chance to rally late in games. They have eight comeback victories in the ninth inning and 44 comeback victories overall. Their 44 comebacks overall tied for third place in the league, and their ninth-inning comebacks ranked highest in the league.
Rob Thomson continues to favor closers by committee
The fact that the Phillies bullpen in 2024 does not feature a designated closer, in contrast to many other extremely successful bullpens, is its most intriguing feature. Throughout the game, Rob Thomson has shown mastery in managing a closer-by-committee approach while keeping his high-leverage relievers ready to put out any flames that may develop.
If the game is close and the scariest hitters on the other team are due up, don’t be surprised if either of the two relievers enters the game from the bullpen in the seventh or eighth inning. Alvarado and Hoffman are the presumed favorites to close out the game. With so much faith in each reliever, Thomson and the Phillies coaching staff could very well see the experienced Domínguez, the recently extended Strahm, or the rookie Kerkering close games.
Although these are only projections and the season is still early, it’s always encouraging to see the bullpen near the top of the standings. This is a much-needed change of pace for both the fans and the Phillies management.
